Why is climate change happening so fast?
1 Comments Published by CBEMN on Monday, April 21, 2008 at 10:20 AM.
Why is climate change happening so fast?
-Ben Lemieux
To answer the question by simple analogy, it is like putting a pot of water on a hot stove and not paying attention to the pot until it boils over. The same can be said of our outlook on climate change. We have only paying attention to it for a relatively short period. The central point in answering this question, and indeed this paper’s take home message, is to highlight the polarity that exists between the changes occurring to the global climate system and our understanding of climate change. No climate change debate is complete without a talk about the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG). Simply put, there will be an increase in GHG when the emissions of GHG is larger than the removal processes.(IPCC 2007 ). This paper is necessarily divided into two parts: first it looks at emissions of GHG and tries to describe the nature and origin of GHG, and secondly we explore the removal process and the changes that are occurring to these systems.
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
IPCC 2007
The statement heard around the world won the IPCC a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. The IPCC are considered the leading experts on climate change. Their findings show that CO2 and Methane (CH4) concentrations in the year 2005 exceeds “by far the natural range over the last 650 000 years.”(IPCC, 2007). Put in a basic, workable analogy, GHG work as a blanket keeping what is underneath warm by preventing heat from escaping. It has been 650 000 years since the last time our planet had an atmospheric blanket whose molecular assemblage was as thickly concentrated with GHG. We should therefore expect some changes to occur. The source of such GHG is clearly identified by the IPCC as they state “[g]lobal increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use”(IPCC, 2007).
We now understand, unequivocally, that the climate is changing and that human derived GHG emissions is to blame but to understand why some may feel overwhelmed by the rate at which the change is occurring. therefore, it is important to consider the technological advancements that occurred in the late half of the 1900’s, which set the stage for the discovery of climate change.
Prior to the 1970’s human induced global warming was not on the forefront of the scientific community due in large part to the lack of technology needed to study global climate dynamics. The case in point, we did not have the technology to land on the moon until 1969 and it was not until 1972 that the first global multispectral satellite scanning system was established, namely the Landsat satellite system (Gregory, 2000). Chad Kister in his book Arctic Melting states “ Climatologists [had] been hindered until the advent of satellite data”(Kister, 2005). It suffices to say that the climate may have been warming prior to this time but we did not have the technology requirements to monitor any global change.
However, to tackle the problem of climate change we must be willing to address human induced GHG emissions and I highlight the importance of using IPCC data for the following reason. When I am sick and feeling ill I do not seek the advice of an Economist nor do I seek the advice of a Geologist, therefore when dealing with climate change, it seems fairly logical to use data from the IPCC .
Their data states that there has been a steady change of our atmospheric blanket as“[g]lobal GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004” (IPCC, 2007). The report also states that CO2, the most important of the GHG emitted by humans, has grown by about 80% between 1970 and 2004. (IPCC, 2007). The conclusion is simple, we have been putting more and more stuff into the atmosphere, at a rate that is almost exponential, which results in a thickening of the atmospheric blanket and a consequential warming of the climate.
The other aspect related to emissions increase is to correlate emissions with the human population increase.
In 1970, the world human population was about 3.7 billion, in 1990, the year the Kyoto protocol was signed, the population grew to about 5.2 billion and we surpassed the 6 billion mark just before the new millennium (Geohive, 2007). There is a distinct link between the world population increase and the thickening of our atmospheric blanket however, humans, by themselves are not the problem in terms of GHG emissions but our actions related to life quality are the problem.
Carbon dioxide, or CO2, is mostly found in fossil fuels and to put things into perspective, the Kyoto protocol asks for a reduction of emissions below the 1990 levels. OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries), produced over 22 million barrels a day in 1990 which jumped to 32 million barrels a day in 2006. (OPEC, 2007). Coal production has also increased, and in the period from 2005 to 2006, a single year, the production rose an amazing 8.8% and 92 % since 1982 (World Coal Institute, 2007). I have chosen to use these statistics rather than the emission statistics produced by the IPCC to highlight the global links of our modern lifestyles.
Fossil fuels are derived from products that are mined or drilled in one region of the world and the extraction technology is heavily dependent on the same fossil fuels we are trying to get at. This process results in an environmental degradation of the local source region. The products are then sent to another area for refinement and eventually is distributed globally before ending up in our houses and cars. All along this chain, fossil fuels were used for the transportation and refinement which says nothing of the wars fought, and the fossil fuel dependent machinery, to keep the flow constant.
As a global population it is our economic activity fuelled in large part by technology reliant on fossil fuels that poses the problem. A sample of the facts produced by the American Clean Air Council exemplified my point:
- Each American produces 56 tons of garbage a year.
- Each year Americans produce enough thrash to line up garbage trucks from the Earth halfway to the moon.
- Americans alone throw away 2.5 million plastic bottles every hour.
- Americans alone throw away enough plastic cups, paper, forks and spoons to circle the equator 300 times, a year.
(Clean Air Council, 2008)
It is apparent that there is an ever increasing production of waste and garbage, in fact, since 1979 there has been an 80% increase in thrash production in America alone. (Clean Air Council, 2008). Garbage must go somewhere and that somewhere may also be a problem in terms of increasing rates of climate change as they remove the trees and forests that could otherwise be removing GHG from our atmosphere.
Trees, through the process of photosynthesis, take in CO2 from the air and replace it with oxygen. However, each year approximately 13 million hectares, an area roughly the size of Greece is disappearing from the Earth.( FAO, 2005 ). Deforestation alone accounts for about 17.3% of the GHG emission emitted by humans (IPPC 2007). This basically means that every year the earth becomes 13 million hectares less effective at removing GHG from the atmosphere. This situation provides the impetus for the final segment of this paper, the feedback loop that occurs in the Northern Arctic.
The thickening of our atmospheric blanket by the increased addition of GHG and the elimination of the natural sequestration capabilities of our forests plainly sets the scene for the warming of the arctic and the melting of snow and ice cover.
The result of melting ice cover is a positive feedback loop that results in warmer oceans and cyclic manifestation of continued warming. The feedback loop so crucial to explaining why the rate of climate change is increasing has to do with the albedo effect, the amount of light reflected by a body. Snow and ice cover reflect the sun’s energy back to the atmosphere whereas exposed oceans and planetary surfaces absorb incoming solar radiation. (Kister, 2005). The loop is amplified during the summers when there is 24 hours of sunlight in the arctic. The less ice there is to reflect solar radiation the more the oceans warm by absorption which results in a delayed return of ice due to the warmed ocean. (Kister, 2005).The feedback effect amplifies itself yearly and the result is less reflection and more absorption which ultimately heats the global atmospheric blanket. Geography of the land also plays an important role in the loop as the seas around the arctic are surrounded by land and islands and results in a shallower sea that is more prone to rapid warming. (Kister, 2005).
It is clearly our actions, a cumulative effect of a global population increase and reliance on fossil fuels, that have put the stuff that warms the world up in the atmosphere. We may not have always known that our actions had such a heavy price to pay and we are only starting to understand the levy charged by the earth for our actions, primarily in the form of feedback loops. We do, however, have an increasing understanding of those impacts and therefore have a global responsibility to be aware of the price of our daily actions and the toll posed on all that live here, even Gaia herself.
References
Clean Air Council. Waste Facts and Figures. (Internet) 2008. Available from
http://www.cleanair.org/Waste/wasteFacts.html March 4 2008.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO). 2005. Global Resource Forest Assesment (2005) (Internet) Available from
http://www.fao.org/forestry/site/32431/en/ March 8 2008.
GeoHive. Population Milestones. (Internet). Available from
http://www.xist.org/earth/his_history2.aspx. March 8 2008.
Gregory, K.J. (2000). The Changing nature of Physical Geography. Arnold, London University Press. p 70.
IPCC. Fourth Assessment report, Topic 2. (Intenet) Available from
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_topic2.pdf March 9 2008.
Kister, C. (2005). Arctic Melting. Common Courage Pres. Monroe, ME. (p 12, 94-95).
OPEC. Annual Statistical Bulletin. (2007). available from
http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/ASB2006.htm. March 6 2007
World Coal Institute. Coal Facts. (Internet) 2008
http://www.worldcoal.org/pages/content/index.asp?PageID=188. March 6 2008.
-Ben Lemieux
To answer the question by simple analogy, it is like putting a pot of water on a hot stove and not paying attention to the pot until it boils over. The same can be said of our outlook on climate change. We have only paying attention to it for a relatively short period. The central point in answering this question, and indeed this paper’s take home message, is to highlight the polarity that exists between the changes occurring to the global climate system and our understanding of climate change. No climate change debate is complete without a talk about the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG). Simply put, there will be an increase in GHG when the emissions of GHG is larger than the removal processes.(IPCC 2007 ). This paper is necessarily divided into two parts: first it looks at emissions of GHG and tries to describe the nature and origin of GHG, and secondly we explore the removal process and the changes that are occurring to these systems.
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
IPCC 2007
The statement heard around the world won the IPCC a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. The IPCC are considered the leading experts on climate change. Their findings show that CO2 and Methane (CH4) concentrations in the year 2005 exceeds “by far the natural range over the last 650 000 years.”(IPCC, 2007). Put in a basic, workable analogy, GHG work as a blanket keeping what is underneath warm by preventing heat from escaping. It has been 650 000 years since the last time our planet had an atmospheric blanket whose molecular assemblage was as thickly concentrated with GHG. We should therefore expect some changes to occur. The source of such GHG is clearly identified by the IPCC as they state “[g]lobal increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use”(IPCC, 2007).
We now understand, unequivocally, that the climate is changing and that human derived GHG emissions is to blame but to understand why some may feel overwhelmed by the rate at which the change is occurring. therefore, it is important to consider the technological advancements that occurred in the late half of the 1900’s, which set the stage for the discovery of climate change.
Prior to the 1970’s human induced global warming was not on the forefront of the scientific community due in large part to the lack of technology needed to study global climate dynamics. The case in point, we did not have the technology to land on the moon until 1969 and it was not until 1972 that the first global multispectral satellite scanning system was established, namely the Landsat satellite system (Gregory, 2000). Chad Kister in his book Arctic Melting states “ Climatologists [had] been hindered until the advent of satellite data”(Kister, 2005). It suffices to say that the climate may have been warming prior to this time but we did not have the technology requirements to monitor any global change.
However, to tackle the problem of climate change we must be willing to address human induced GHG emissions and I highlight the importance of using IPCC data for the following reason. When I am sick and feeling ill I do not seek the advice of an Economist nor do I seek the advice of a Geologist, therefore when dealing with climate change, it seems fairly logical to use data from the IPCC .
Their data states that there has been a steady change of our atmospheric blanket as“[g]lobal GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004” (IPCC, 2007). The report also states that CO2, the most important of the GHG emitted by humans, has grown by about 80% between 1970 and 2004. (IPCC, 2007). The conclusion is simple, we have been putting more and more stuff into the atmosphere, at a rate that is almost exponential, which results in a thickening of the atmospheric blanket and a consequential warming of the climate.
The other aspect related to emissions increase is to correlate emissions with the human population increase.
In 1970, the world human population was about 3.7 billion, in 1990, the year the Kyoto protocol was signed, the population grew to about 5.2 billion and we surpassed the 6 billion mark just before the new millennium (Geohive, 2007). There is a distinct link between the world population increase and the thickening of our atmospheric blanket however, humans, by themselves are not the problem in terms of GHG emissions but our actions related to life quality are the problem.
Carbon dioxide, or CO2, is mostly found in fossil fuels and to put things into perspective, the Kyoto protocol asks for a reduction of emissions below the 1990 levels. OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries), produced over 22 million barrels a day in 1990 which jumped to 32 million barrels a day in 2006. (OPEC, 2007). Coal production has also increased, and in the period from 2005 to 2006, a single year, the production rose an amazing 8.8% and 92 % since 1982 (World Coal Institute, 2007). I have chosen to use these statistics rather than the emission statistics produced by the IPCC to highlight the global links of our modern lifestyles.
Fossil fuels are derived from products that are mined or drilled in one region of the world and the extraction technology is heavily dependent on the same fossil fuels we are trying to get at. This process results in an environmental degradation of the local source region. The products are then sent to another area for refinement and eventually is distributed globally before ending up in our houses and cars. All along this chain, fossil fuels were used for the transportation and refinement which says nothing of the wars fought, and the fossil fuel dependent machinery, to keep the flow constant.
As a global population it is our economic activity fuelled in large part by technology reliant on fossil fuels that poses the problem. A sample of the facts produced by the American Clean Air Council exemplified my point:
- Each American produces 56 tons of garbage a year.
- Each year Americans produce enough thrash to line up garbage trucks from the Earth halfway to the moon.
- Americans alone throw away 2.5 million plastic bottles every hour.
- Americans alone throw away enough plastic cups, paper, forks and spoons to circle the equator 300 times, a year.
(Clean Air Council, 2008)
It is apparent that there is an ever increasing production of waste and garbage, in fact, since 1979 there has been an 80% increase in thrash production in America alone. (Clean Air Council, 2008). Garbage must go somewhere and that somewhere may also be a problem in terms of increasing rates of climate change as they remove the trees and forests that could otherwise be removing GHG from our atmosphere.
Trees, through the process of photosynthesis, take in CO2 from the air and replace it with oxygen. However, each year approximately 13 million hectares, an area roughly the size of Greece is disappearing from the Earth.( FAO, 2005 ). Deforestation alone accounts for about 17.3% of the GHG emission emitted by humans (IPPC 2007). This basically means that every year the earth becomes 13 million hectares less effective at removing GHG from the atmosphere. This situation provides the impetus for the final segment of this paper, the feedback loop that occurs in the Northern Arctic.
The thickening of our atmospheric blanket by the increased addition of GHG and the elimination of the natural sequestration capabilities of our forests plainly sets the scene for the warming of the arctic and the melting of snow and ice cover.
The result of melting ice cover is a positive feedback loop that results in warmer oceans and cyclic manifestation of continued warming. The feedback loop so crucial to explaining why the rate of climate change is increasing has to do with the albedo effect, the amount of light reflected by a body. Snow and ice cover reflect the sun’s energy back to the atmosphere whereas exposed oceans and planetary surfaces absorb incoming solar radiation. (Kister, 2005). The loop is amplified during the summers when there is 24 hours of sunlight in the arctic. The less ice there is to reflect solar radiation the more the oceans warm by absorption which results in a delayed return of ice due to the warmed ocean. (Kister, 2005).The feedback effect amplifies itself yearly and the result is less reflection and more absorption which ultimately heats the global atmospheric blanket. Geography of the land also plays an important role in the loop as the seas around the arctic are surrounded by land and islands and results in a shallower sea that is more prone to rapid warming. (Kister, 2005).
It is clearly our actions, a cumulative effect of a global population increase and reliance on fossil fuels, that have put the stuff that warms the world up in the atmosphere. We may not have always known that our actions had such a heavy price to pay and we are only starting to understand the levy charged by the earth for our actions, primarily in the form of feedback loops. We do, however, have an increasing understanding of those impacts and therefore have a global responsibility to be aware of the price of our daily actions and the toll posed on all that live here, even Gaia herself.
References
Clean Air Council. Waste Facts and Figures. (Internet) 2008. Available from
http://www.cleanair.org/Waste/wasteFacts.html March 4 2008.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO). 2005. Global Resource Forest Assesment (2005) (Internet) Available from
http://www.fao.org/forestry/site/32431/en/ March 8 2008.
GeoHive. Population Milestones. (Internet). Available from
http://www.xist.org/earth/his_history2.aspx. March 8 2008.
Gregory, K.J. (2000). The Changing nature of Physical Geography. Arnold, London University Press. p 70.
IPCC. Fourth Assessment report, Topic 2. (Intenet) Available from
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_topic2.pdf March 9 2008.
Kister, C. (2005). Arctic Melting. Common Courage Pres. Monroe, ME. (p 12, 94-95).
OPEC. Annual Statistical Bulletin. (2007). available from
http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/ASB2006.htm. March 6 2007
World Coal Institute. Coal Facts. (Internet) 2008
http://www.worldcoal.org/pages/content/index.asp?PageID=188. March 6 2008.
Canadians Looking for Signs of Extreme Climate Change Should Look Outside - British Meteorological Office
New research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research points to Canada and Russia as the places to find the world’s most extreme temperature changes. UK Met Office scientists examined changes in daily minimum and maximum extreme temperatures across the world, and found that the coldest winter days in Canada and Russia are now up to 4˚Celsius milder than they were in the 1950s.
Read the story:
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL26748132
Met Office, Hadley Centre Press Release:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080326.html
Abstract from the Journal of Geophysical Research:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2006JD008091.shtml
New research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research points to Canada and Russia as the places to find the world’s most extreme temperature changes. UK Met Office scientists examined changes in daily minimum and maximum extreme temperatures across the world, and found that the coldest winter days in Canada and Russia are now up to 4˚Celsius milder than they were in the 1950s.
Read the story:
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL26748132
Met Office, Hadley Centre Press Release:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080326.html
Abstract from the Journal of Geophysical Research:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2006JD008091.shtml
